Have Rate Rises now peaked?

[Slade]

Guys, I found this article in the age this morning, though it was a good read.

'... THERE are signs the interest rate cycle has reached its peak, with one senior economist predicting that after 12 successive interest rate rises over six years, the next move for rates will be down.

"Most likely, the next movement in official interest rates will be down - although that seems unlikely to occur before the middle of next year," ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake wrote in a column for BusinessDay...'

For the rest of the article > Rate cycle may have peaked | theage.com.au (http://business.theage.com.au/rate-cycle-may-have-peaked/20080401-22z3.html)

So what do you all think? Have we peaked?

[Brendan]

Well hopefully they have.

I know things are starting to decline over in the UK and the usual trend is for the ripple effect from the US/UK economies to hit Australia about 6 months later.

If this is true.. then house prices are going to start to drop - this is already happening in the uk, with the median house price dropping about 5-10% and has definitely already started happening in the US.

Do we think this will happen in oz?

I say yes.

[Slade]

The only difference between Australia and other major economies is that we have resources to back us up, a lot of our income comes from the mining and resources sector.. so that could certainly help us through this bad patch and could even continue to feed inflation.. but hopefully with the falling global financial markets this might balance out the boom in resources!

[Carl Taylor]

I personally dont think we have seen the end of the rate rises just yet.

But who knows for sure.

[gerryonline]

What makes you say that carl? Most economists are saying we have, the rest of the world have started pulling back rates.. why do you think oz will be any different?